US Macro Update: PMI July 2017
It’s been a long time since I last posted on the posted on the blog. So I’ll be doing a review post soon, going through all the ideas that we talked about and mentioned in the past and observing if they’ve been doing well or not.
For now, I want to do a quick review of the main leading macro indicators. So we can try to know what we are and what we can expect during the following months. Let’s get started, shall we? PMI goes first.
Both the actual PMI and New Orders are behaving like expected. After signaling a new expansion in the economic cycle they are staying at levels consistent with an expansion phase. The PMI can not go up to infinity as it oscillates between 0-100. So as long as it stays oscillating around 55 we should be content and expect the current expansion phase to keep going for the next months. At least according to PMI.
If we check the “what respondents are saying” section it’s quite easy to figure out what is going on. Everyone is happy, so we should expect good results during the next quarters. There you have it:
So to conclude, PMI and New Orders suggest that the USA macro is expanding and therefore we should expect an accelerating GDP as well as company revenues. And in the more “qualitative” side of things, every single industry is having a good time.
I’ve been bullish during the last months and looking at PMI there is not much that can make me change my mind. For now, PMI keeps been a bullish indicator.
Nuño Pérez del Barrio