US Macro: UMCSI April 2017

US Macro: UMCSI April 2017

Today the university of Michigan published it’s UM Consumer Sentiment for April 2017 (Here). As every month ill go through it and talk about the main considerations.

UMSCI.png

 

UMCSI Reading % Points
Previous 96.9
Latest 97.0 0.1
UMCSI EXP Reading % Points
Previous 86.5
Latest 87.0 0.5
UMCSI CCI Reading % Points
Previous 113.2
Latest 112.7 -0.5

 

As you can see this month data is decent. It’s not very positive because there hasn’t been an increase. But it’s also not negative as there hasn’t been any decrease. During the last months there were two prevailing ideas:

1) Consumer Confidence was high and increasing, we were therefore bullish.
2) There was a “correction” in consumer confidence, it had gone done for a couple of months.

What we are trying to figure out is if the prevailing trend (upwards) will remain. Or if the small correction will actually start a downwards move.

This month is slightly positive in that sense. The overall index is not going down anymore. Furthermore, the expectations index went up this month, which might mean that people are starting to believe in a brighter future.

In conclusion, this indicator suggests we should have a bullish perspective. Consumer confidence is high, and the correction seems to be just that, a correction. However, it’s important to keep a close eye on how this indicator might change in the future.

Nuño Pérez del Barrio
Twitter: @nuopb

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